I can't argue for, or against the 8.8 option, but it seems like the most finicky for now. Can you do all the work needed to make one fit an Early Bronco, including any housing mods, and axle and brake mods (different bolt pattern), or will you be paying someone to do it?
That answer would definitely effect how cost-effective an 8.8 is going to be.
In keeping with the 9" theme, what is it you will be doing with your Bronco? Casual driving and maybe some wheeling? Some harder stuff, or maybe some adventures in Utah? Road trips to Louisiana mud races or somewhere for fun in the sand dunes?
If you really aren't going to be hard on it at all, save your money and keep the small bearing 28 spline axles. You ever heard in all these years of anyone busting a bearing that wasn't already worn out?
Lots of bearing stories here. But all (or almost all) were from high mileage and/or old age. I don't think I ever heard of anyone with normal size tires (and your 31's certainly qualify as "normal" still today) frying a properly installed bearing.
Axle breakage? Sure, definitely it's a thing. But here again, I bet there aren't many people with open differentials, smaller tires and/or a light right foot that have snapped a stock 28 spline axle.
Adding more power and keeping the 3.50 gears definitely puts more stress on the axles if you like to push the go-pedal, but if you are not changing your habits after all this, you could probably live just fine with stock.
Put a traction aiding device in the rear end though, and all bets are off!
Some companies don't even sell 28-spline traction differentials anymore. Their use is almost certain to result in a snapped axle the first time you look cross-ways at a rock or burn-out box.%).
But for light duty use with an open diff, or limited-slip, nothing wrong with them.
So now you have to decide whether you really even need a limited-slip, locker or spool or whatever. If you do, then just bite the bullet and go with the 31-spline version no matter how light your right foot is.
There, that part was easy, right?
So, let's say intended use, or owner desire says you must add a traction diff. Ok, it's 31 splines and bite the bullet and just buy the 31 spline axles. No matter which housing you use.
So now you've gone with the 31 spline differential of your choice. No waste of money because you can carry that over to any 9" housing you care to upgrade to in the future. If you even go there in the future, which is still up in the air at this point.
One of the least expensive options for most are the big bearing 31-spline axles. But your small bearing axles do complicate the decision by adding another 80 bucks or so to the tab. But only slightly more complicated.
If you do buy 31-spline, small bearing axles now, then decide sometime down the road to upgrade to a larger bearing housing because you're carrying a lot more crap in the back than you ever thought you would, or just want the cool stronger housings, you could sell your small-bearing 31-spline axles in a heartbeat to someone going through the same process as you are now. And recoup much of the cost of the new, less expensive big-bearing axles.
You're not ready to go with rear discs at the moment it sounds like (price-wise?), so you're really not anchored into one bearing size or the other. Right now you have all your existing brake stuff to use and that's fine for now. For drum brakes with big bearings though, they exist no problem. We have fully assembled big bearing, big brakes (the really big '76 and '77 style) ready to go if you do decide on the big bearing housing from the get go. No need to go disc if you don't want to. But obviously you have that option and price-wise there is a difference (almost double) but you can still decide to spend the extra if you want.
Right now drums are $340, discs are $695 (or $875 including axles, bearings, brakes and all that, but for a specific housing end, so more finicky)
So some, but not much advantage to sticking with drums in some cases.
If you opt for big bearing and drums, you simply substitute '76/'77 31-spline axle shafts for your new housing. Voila! Big bearings and brakes.
You can make the rear brake decision whenever you decide ultimately which housing ends you're going to end up with.
And yes, to complicate things, even the 28-spline aftermarket axle shafts are stronger than stock. So yes, you could keep the 28-spline differential and work with that in mind. But at that point, you would not even need to change the axles, so why would you, right? Unless you were just going for stronger. IN which case you're right back to the 31 vs 28 decision.
If you're trying to go best bang for the buck, it ultimately just comes down to how are you going to use the Bronco. Just like pretty much every other decision we make.
If you aren't going to be doing anything different from before, and it has lasted the last 48 years without much complaint, you just have to decide how much work and money is worth what you're trying to achieve.
Simple, right?;D
Paul